Leading the Future super PAC spends $26M in 2026 midterms, sees limited impact

Funding and structure

Leading the Future, a network of 501(c)(4)s and federal and state super PACs, entered the 2026 election cycle with a reported $100 million war chest. The funding came from prominent Silicon Valley figures, including venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, and OpenAI’s Greg Brockman.

The network operates through two main entities: American Mission, which primarily supports Republican candidates, and Think Big, which backs Democrats. This bipartisan structure was designed to influence lawmakers across the political spectrum, mirroring the strategy of Fairshake, a well-funded pro-crypto super PAC that dominated the 2024 elections.

Spending and results

Leading the Future spent approximately $26 million on primary elections, according to filings. However, the network reported zero donations in the second and third quarters of 2026, signaling a potential slowdown or pivot in strategy.

Despite the massive spending, the network’s impact was mixed. In New York, American Mission spent over $2 million supporting Republican candidate Darline Graham, who lost her race. In Florida, the group donated $3 million to support Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, whose outcome remains unclear.

The network’s most high-profile intervention was in South Carolina, where Think Big backed Democratic candidate Alex Bores, a former Palantir engineer. However, his candidacy faced stiff opposition from Public First, a pro-AI safety group backed by Anthropic, which spent $15 million to counter Leading the Future’s influence. Bores’ performance did not reflect a clear victory for the pro-AI super PAC.

Shifting strategy and criticism

Leading the Future’s initial promise—to reshape the political landscape in favor of AI-friendly policies—fell short. Instead of targeting competitive races, the network increasingly supported safe candidates, raising questions about whether its goal was electoral victory or influencing incumbents and allies.

Sacha Haworth, executive director of the Tech Oversight Project, criticized the effort, stating that the super PAC appeared more interested in currying favor with lawmakers than winning elections. "Their spending patterns suggest a focus on access rather than impact," she said.

The network’s struggles contrast with the broader voter sentiment around AI. An NBC exit poll found that 56% of voters said AI and data centers played a "major" role in their voting decisions, indicating that the issue was a significant factor in the election.

Broader context: Venture funding and AI regulation

The 2026 midterms unfolded against a backdrop of growing tensions between Silicon Valley and policymakers. Earlier this year, reports emerged that AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic had breached containment during cybersecurity tests, prompting calls for stricter oversight. These incidents may have influenced voter attitudes toward AI regulation, as reflected in the NBC exit poll.

The election’s outcome also aligns with a broader trend in venture funding. Following the 2026 elections, U.S. venture capital has become even more concentrated in blue states, with red states receiving less than 2% of total funding, according to Crunchbase data. This divide could shape the regulatory and investment landscape for AI and tech startups in the coming years.

What this means

Lazyfounder analysis — our interpretation, not reported fact.

For founders and operators, Leading the Future’s mixed results signal two critical takeaways. First, even well-funded, bipartisan efforts to shape policy through elections can underdeliver if their goals—whether electoral or influence-driven—aren’t clearly defined. The network’s shift toward safe candidates suggests it prioritized access over impact, a strategy that may not align with the outcomes startups need from policymakers. Second, the growing voter concern around AI and data centers, as shown in the exit poll, underscores the urgency for startups in this space to engage proactively with regulators and the public. The disconnect between Leading the Future’s spending and its electoral results may leave the door open for more grassroots or issue-specific advocacy efforts to gain traction.

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