GSMA outlines spectrum and investment needs for 6G by 2030s

6G adoption timeline and coexistence with 5G

According to the GSMA, 6G connections are projected to exceed five billion by 2040, though the technology will only become dominant around 2035–2037. The 2030s are expected to be a transitional period, with 5G and 6G networks coexisting. This follows the slower-than-anticipated adoption of 5G, which launched in 2018 but is only now entering its dominant phase. As of today, there are around 350 commercial 5G networks globally.

The delay in 5G’s dominance underscores the importance of long-term planning for 6G. While 5G is expected to overtake 4G later this decade, the shift to 6G will require even more deliberate investment in spectrum, infrastructure, and policy frameworks.

Spectrum requirements and capacity challenges

The GSMA report specifies that 6G will require 200–400 MHz channels per operator and 2–3.3 GHz of mid-band spectrum per market by 2035–2040, depending on demand. Mid-band spectrum, in particular, is critical for balancing coverage and capacity, with higher-demand markets needing up to 3.3 GHz.

If spectrum allocation remains constrained at current levels, the GSMA warns that over 50% of the world’s urban population could face capacity constraints by 2030. This risk highlights the need for proactive spectrum policy to support emerging technologies like AI-native services, sensing, and multi-device environments.

Policy and economic considerations

The GSMA emphasizes that spectrum policy for 6G must prioritize capacity, economic value, and equitable access over upfront revenues. The report cites past mistakes in 3G auctions, where high license costs stifled investment and delayed network rollouts. Instead, policies should encourage long-term investment and harmonization to ensure robust, high-quality networks.

Luciana, Head of Spectrum at the GSMA, and Ross, Senior Director of Spectrum Strategy, argue that the economic and social value of spectrum lies in the networks it enables, not the price paid for licenses. This approach aims to connect more people while supporting the infrastructure needed for 6G.

What this means

Lazyfounder analysis — our interpretation, not reported fact.

For founders and operators in telecommunications, hardware, and AI-driven services, the GSMA’s report signals a decade-long window to prepare for 6G. The emphasis on spectrum allocation and harmonization means that startups in network optimization, spectrum-sharing technologies, and AI-native applications could find opportunities in addressing capacity constraints.

Investors may also see long-term potential in infrastructure plays, particularly those focused on mid-band spectrum efficiency and network densification. However, the report’s warnings about capacity constraints in urban markets suggest that solutions addressing these challenges—such as edge computing or dynamic spectrum access—could gain traction.

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