Forrester: AI to claim 20% of business tech spend by 2027, but most CIOs will miss ROI targets

Spending surge, ROI struggles

According to Forrester’s State of AI Survey 2026, AI is on track to represent a fifth of all business technology spending in 2027. However, more than half of CIOs surveyed expect to fall short of their AI ROI targets within the same timeframe.

The survey also reveals that only 22% of AI decision-makers reported a positive impact on earnings over the past year. Nearly half (45%) of CIOs consider AI rollouts successful only if they achieve ROI within one year, reflecting growing pressure to justify expenditures.

Tech leaders are preparing for continued cost increases: 53% expect their budgets to rise above inflation next year, signaling that AI adoption remains a financial priority despite uncertain returns.

Cost sensitivity drives shift to open-weight models

Forrester’s research indicates that enterprises are increasingly turning to open-weight models like Gemma, Llama, and Qwen to manage AI costs. These models are gaining traction for use cases where budget constraints make proprietary solutions less viable.

The survey highlights a broader trend of cost optimization, with businesses seeking alternatives to expensive, consumption-based AI pricing models. This shift mirrors the challenges faced by companies like Uber, where uncontrolled AI spending led to rapid budget depletion, as previously reported by LazyFounder.

Quantum computing remains a niche focus

Despite speculation about breakthroughs, 87% of businesses familiar with quantum computing have not allocated any resources to it. Forrester’s data suggests that near-term advancements are unlikely to move the needle for most enterprises, leaving AI as the dominant focus for now.

Why AI spending is under scrutiny

The pressure to demonstrate ROI from AI investments aligns with earlier reporting on Uber’s AI budget crisis, where rapid spending outpaced planned allocations. Founders and operators are now grappling with the need for measurable outcomes, as the gap between spending and earnings impact widens.

This trend also reflects broader questions about AI training and deployment, similar to findings from a UK study where leaders overstated their AI knowledge. The lack of transparency in AI’s financial benefits is prompting a reassessment of how companies allocate resources.

What this means

Lazyfounder analysis — our interpretation, not reported fact.

Forrester’s survey confirms what many founders and operators already suspect: AI is consuming an outsized share of tech budgets, but the financial returns are not keeping pace. The emphasis on one-year ROI windows suggests that patience for experimental AI projects is wearing thin, particularly for startups competing for limited capital. The rise of open-weight models is a direct response to this pressure, offering a path to reduce costs without abandoning AI altogether. However, the data also serves as a warning—without clearer links between AI spending and earnings, even well-funded projects could face cuts or delays.

Key takeaways

• CIOs and tech leaders are under pressure to demonstrate quick ROI from AI investments, with many setting a one-year timeline for success. This urgency may force more rigorous cost-benefit analysis before scaling AI projects.
• The shift toward open-weight models reflects a broader trend of cost optimization in enterprise AI, offering founders and operators alternatives to expensive proprietary solutions.
• The gap between AI spending and measurable financial outcomes highlights the need for clearer metrics and accountability in AI deployments, particularly for startups competing for limited budgets.

Related on Lazyfounder

• AI cost optimization isn’t just about cheaper models—Uber’s budget crisis shows why
• UK Leaders Overstate AI Knowledge Amid Career and Training Gaps, Study Finds